2024 United States presidential election
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The 2024 United States presidential election was the 60th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[7] The Republican ticket of former president Donald Trump and Ohio senator JD Vance defeated the incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris and Minnesota governor Tim Walz.[8][9] Trump is scheduled to be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, 2025, after formal election by the United States Electoral College.[10][11]
The incumbent president, Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, initially ran for re-election,[12] and became the party's presumptive nominee, facing little opposition;[13] however, a poor presidential debate performance in June 2024 intensified concerns about his age and health, and led to calls within his party for him to leave the race.[14] Although initially adamant on remaining in the race, Biden withdrew on July 21, becoming the first eligible incumbent president to withdraw from the race since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. He endorsed Harris, who was voted the party's nominee by the delegates on August 5. Harris selected Walz as her running mate.
Biden's predecessor, Trump, a member of the Republican Party, ran for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in 2020.[15] He was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention along with his running mate, Vance. The Trump campaign was noted for making many false and misleading statements, including the false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump,[16][17][18][19] engaging in anti-immigrant fearmongering,[d] and promoting conspiracy theories.[20][21] Some historians and scholars have characterized Trump's rhetoric and behavior as embracing far-right extremism[20][21] and exhibiting increasingly authoritarian and dehumanizing language toward his political opponents,[e] likening it to populist movements, with some comparing it to fascism[f] in ways considered unprecedented for a U.S. political candidate[22][23][24] and a continued breaking of political norms.[25]
In May 2024, Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, becoming the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime.[26] He remains under multiple indictments for his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, his role in the January 6 attack, and his election racketeering prosecution in the state of Georgia. Trump survived two assassination attempts in the months before the election, the first in Pennsylvania and the second in Florida.[27][28]
The presidential election took place at the same time as elections for 34 seats in the U.S. Senate, all seats in the U.S. House, 11 state governorships, and legislatures in 44 states. Key swing states for the presidential election included Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[29] Leading campaign issues were abortion,[30][31][32] climate change,[33][34] democracy,[35][36] the economy,[37] education,[38] foreign policy,[39] healthcare,[40] immigration,[41][42] and LGBTQ rights.[43] The economy had consistently been cited by voters in polls as being the most important issue in the election.[44][37]
Trump and Vance were projected by major media outlets in the early hours of November 6 as the next and 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States,[45] respectively, with Trump winning the national popular vote as well as the electoral vote this time, unlike 2016. Kamala Harris conceded the race to Trump via a phone call and congratulated him on winning the election.[46] Harris later delivered a concession speech at 4 p.m. EST.[47][48] Trump is the first president to be elected to a non-consecutive second term in 132 years, since Grover Cleveland won the 1892 election.[49] Harris is the most recent sitting vice president to unsuccessfully seek the presidency since Al Gore in 2000 and the most recent Democratic presidential nominee to lose the national popular vote since John Kerry in 2004.[50]
Background
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Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or (in this election) a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[51]
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[52] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny. Officials in many states have sought additional funding to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. Numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and are overwhelmed with public records requests, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[53][54]
Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[55] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[56]
The Colorado Supreme Court,[57] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[58] and the Secretary of State of Maine[59] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and thus attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[60][59] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[61]
Election interference
Donald Trump's false claims of interference
Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of September 2024[update].[63][64] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, may attempt to impede the voting process, or refuse to certify the 2024 results.[65] The New York Times has reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system", by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump loses.[66]
In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants, in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.[67][68][69] The claims have been made as part of larger Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election and election denial movement.[70] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has predicted without evidence that the 2024 election would be rigged against him. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[62] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[71]
Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[72][73] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[g] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[80] his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[81][82] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election,[83] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[84] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[85][86][87][88] Trump's political operation said that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.[89]
Interference by foreign nations
Before the election, U.S. officials and former officials stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election was likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[90] China, Russia, and Iran have since all been identified as mounting influence operations and attempts to interfere with the 2024 election. US intelligence officials have described the efforts as part of broader efforts by authoritarian nations to use the internet to erode support for democracy.[91]
China
China has been identified as interfering with the 2024 election through propaganda and disinformation campaigns linked to its Spamouflage operation. US intelligence agencies described the effort as not targeting any particular candidate, but focusing on issues important to the Chinese government such as Taiwan, and "undermining confidence in elections, voting, and the U.S. in general."[91] As early as April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[92]
Russia
According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[93][94] On September 4, 2024, the United States publicly accused Russia of interfering in the 2024 election and announced several steps to combat Russian influence including sanctions, indictments, and seizing of web domains used to spread propaganda and disinformation. American intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia prefers Trump to win the election, viewing him as more critical of U.S. support for Ukraine.[95]
Iran
Iran has been identified as interfering with the 2024 presidential election through front companies connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps through hacking attempts against the Trump, Biden, and Harris campaigns starting as early as May 2024.[96] Iran has launched propaganda and disinformation campaigns through fake news websites and accounts on social media to tip the election against former president Trump. The New York Times stated the efforts were an attempt at "sowing internal discord and discrediting the democratic system in the United States more broadly in the eyes of the world."[97][96][98]
Voter roll purges
Multiple Republican-led administrations have removed voters from their state's voter rolls in the lead up to the election, which critics have argued violates the National Voter Registration Act.[99][100][101]
In July 2024, 160,000 inactive or infrequent voters were removed from Ohio's voter rolls.[102][103] The Ohio chapters of Common Cause and the League of Women Voters threatened lawsuits against the state over the purge.[104][105]
In August 2024, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls.[106][107] In October 2024, the Department of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, alleging that it violated the National Voter Registration Act.[108][109] The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens.[109][110] District judge Patricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed.[111][110] The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order.[112][113] The administration filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6–3 decision, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.[114][113]
In August 2024, Alabama secretary of state Wes Allen announced a process for purging 3,251 registered Alabama voters and referred them to the state attorney general's office for criminal prosecution.[100][115] In September 2024, the Department of Justice sued Alabama for violating the National Voter Registration Act.[116][117] In October 2024, district judge Anna Manasco ruled in favor of the Department of Justice, ordering the state to restore the voter registrations.[118][119] Alabama secretary of state's chief of staff Clay Helms testified that 2,000 of the purged voters were legally registered citizens.[119]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
Trump has been found liable in civil proceedings for both sexual abuse and defamation in 2023 and defamation in 2024, while also being criminally convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, expected to be an issue during the campaign. He has four criminal indictments totaling 86 felony counts and there are other lawsuits against Trump.[120] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to pornographic film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[121] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[122][62]
Trump faces an additional 52 felony counts; 4 counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 8 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[123]
In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found liable by an anonymous jury[124] for sexual abuse/rape[h][i] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[130][131][132] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[133]
According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[134] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[133] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[135] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[136]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[137][138]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[139][140][141] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[142] and then to November 26,[143] and the trial dates in Trump's other cases will likely be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[144][145]
Age and health concerns
Joe Biden
Former president Trump and mass media raised concerns about President Biden's age, including his cognitive state, during and after the 2020 United States presidential election.[146] These concerns increased after a poor performance by Biden during a debate against Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which led a number of commentators and some Democratic lawmakers to call for Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.[147] He later withdrew his candidacy while stating that he would continue serving as president until the conclusion of his term.[148]
According to a February 2024 poll, Biden's age and health were major or moderate concerns for 86% of voters generally,[146] up from 76% earlier in 2020.[149] According to another 2024 poll, most of those who voted for Biden in 2020 said they believed he was too old to be an effective president; The New York Times noted that these concerns "cut across generations, gender, race and education".[150]
Donald Trump
According to polling released in July and August, a majority of voters polled after the first debate think Trump, who is 78 years old, is too old to serve a second term (51%,[151] 57%,[152] and 60%[153]), with 80% unsure he would be able to finish out a second term.[151] During and after Trump's presidency, comments on his age, weight, lifestyle, and history of heart disease have raised questions about his physical health.[154] In addition, numerous public figures, media sources, and mental health professionals have speculated that Trump may have some form of dementia, which runs in his family.[154] Experts for the science publication STAT who analyzed changes in Trump's speeches between 2015 and 2024 noted shorter sentences, more tangents, more repetition, and more confusion of words and phrases. The doctors suggested it could just be due to changes in mood or it could indicate the beginning of Alzheimer's.[155] The sharp rise in all-or-nothing thinking is also linked to cognitive decline.[155] The New York Times reported that Trump's 2024 speeches had grown "darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past" and that experts considered this increase in tangential speech and behavioral disinhibition as a possible consequence of advancing age and cognitive decline.[156] Trump has also been criticized for his lack of transparency around his medical records and health.[157][154]
Political violence and threats
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the members of the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[158][159] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[160][161] Trump has been identified as a key figure in increasing political violence in America both for and against him.[162][163][164] Political violence is at its highest since the 1970s, and most recent violence has come from right-wing assailants.[165][166] Trump has increasingly embraced far-right extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.[20][21] Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies.[e] Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".[173] Trump has suggested using the military against "the enemy from within" on Election Day that he described as "radical left lunatics", Democratic politicians, and those who oppose his candidacy.[174][23]
Assassination attempts
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On July 13, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.[27] Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania,[175][176] who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building located approximately 400 feet (120 meters) from the stage; the shots killed audience member Corey Comperatore and critically injured two other audience members.[175] Seconds later, Crooks was shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.[177] The motive and cause of the assassination attempt are still under investigation by authorities.[178] On September 11, 2024, a bipartisan Senate report identified tech issues and other preventable mistakes by the Secret Service during the event.[179]
On September 15, 2024, Trump survived a separate assassination attempt at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The suspect did not fire his weapon, and no deaths or injuries were reported.[28] The suspect, Ryan Routh, is in custody.[180]
Violence towards election workers
Since the 2020 election and continuing into the 2024 election, the election denial movement in the United States has prompted thousands of death threats directed at election workers, officials, and their families, with some receiving letters laced with fentanyl.[181][182] As of March 2024, the Department of Justice's Election Threats Task Force had charged 20 people with threat-related crimes.[183] In September 2024, suspicious packages were sent to state election officials in Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Wyoming. This resulted in evacuations in several states. The inclusion of white powder in most of the packages mirrored the 2001 anthrax attacks, but the substance in the Oklahoma delivery was identified as flour.[184] Threats have led some election workers to resign and have affected recruitment of temporary poll workers.[185][186] Efforts to protect election workers are diverse, and have included active shooter training, provision of first aid kits and Narcan, bulletproof vests, bulletproof glass, metal detectors, physical barriers, armed guards, police snipers, drones, and security cameras.[185] However, many locations lack the funds to implement such measures.[186]
During early voting in San Antonio, Texas, a voter was arrested and charged for allegedly assaulting an elderly poll worker. The worker reportedly asked the man multiple times to remove his MAGA hat at the polling location. In Texas, it is illegal to wear any clothing showing support of political candidates while in a polling location.[187]
Violence towards voters
On October 30, 2024, a male teenager in Jacksonville, Florida, was arrested for aggravated assault and improper exhibition of a dangerous weapon after brandishing a machete at two women outside an early voting center. He along with seven other teenagers, allegedly approached and antagonized members of the opposing political party as they were demonstrating. Neither the teenager's nor the women's political parties were disclosed, although later posts by the Duval Democratic Party described the teenager's party as a "group of young men carrying Trump flags".[188]
On November 1, 2024, a voter wearing a "Let's Go Brandon" hat was reportedly struck by a poll worker after a verbal altercation over his hat at an Orangeburg County, South Carolina polling location. It is illegal to wear anything supporting a candidate whose name is on the ballot, but wearing a general political message is permitted by South Carolina law.[189]
Arson of ballot boxes
In late October 2024, multiple fires were reported at ballot drop boxes in Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington. The fires damaged hundreds of ballots, requiring election officials to identify and offer new ballots to those affected by the fires. Prior to the fires, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security had issued a bulletin raising concerns that "election-related grievances" could motivate domestic extremist activity and that ballot drop boxes could potentially be "attractive targets".[190][191] In Phoenix, Arizona, a fire was started in a mail collection box, destroying some ballots and other mail. A suspect was arrested and claimed that the fire was unrelated to the election.[192]
Electoral map
This is the first presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census and 2020 United States redistricting cycle.[193][194][195]
Swing states
Most states are not electorally competitive, and due to cultural differences tend to vote for the same political party every election. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that a limited number of swing states—competitive states that "swing" between the parties—are vital to winning the presidency. These are the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; and the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.[29]
Campaign issues
Campaign themes
Harris campaign
Harris has framed her campaign as "a choice between freedom and chaos" and based it around the ideals of "freedom" and "the future".[196][197] The Harris campaign has sought to highlight her experience as an attorney general and a prosecutor to "prosecute the case" against Trump by pointing out his 34 felony convictions and the impacts of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.[198][199] Harris is running as a moderate Democrat who has moved towards the center on several policy positions since her 2019 primary run, embracing many of Biden's domestic policy stances.[200] Harris has focused her economic proposals on the cost of groceries, housing and healthcare.[201] She has also focused on the middle class, and small businesses.[202] Harris' campaign has been noted for having an optimistic and joyful tone.[203][204]
Trump campaign
A central campaign theme for Trump's second presidential bid is "retribution".[205][206] Trump framed the 2024 election as "the final battle," and openly promised to leverage the power of the presidency for political reprisals.[207] Trump is heavily running on immigration as a central campaign focus. Trump's campaign has focused on dark and apocalyptic rhetoric about the state of the country and predicting doom if he does not win.[208][209][210] The Associated Press states that "Trump's rallies take on the symbols, rhetoric and agenda of Christian nationalism."[211] During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has made numerous false and misleading statements.[16][17][18] The large number of lies and false statements have been attributed to Trump's rhetorical style described as using the big lie and firehose of falsehood propaganda technique.[212][213] Trump has also made many personal attacks against Harris,[214] several of which are sexual in nature,[25] have been characterized as racist and misogynistic,[215][216][217] and are considered a further breach of political norms.[25] Trump's harsher rhetoric against his political enemies has been described by historians, scholars, commentators and former generals as populist, authoritarian, fascist,[f] and unlike anything a political candidate has ever said in American history.[22][230][24]
Abortion
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Abortion access is a key topic during the campaign.[231][41] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[232] The three justices appointed by former president Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[233] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the southern United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[232]
Abortion will be on the ballot in up to ten states in 2024, including the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.[234] Some pundits have argued abortion rights referenda could help Harris in November.[235][236][237]
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Democrats predominantly advocate for abortion access as a right,[238] while Republicans generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[239] Since becoming the presumptive nominee, Harris has indicated her support for passing legislation which would restore the federal abortion right protections previously guaranteed by Roe.[240][241] She argued Trump would let his anti-abortion allies implement Project 2025 proposals to restrict abortion and contraception throughout the US.[242]
Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[243][244] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[245] In his home state of Florida, Trump announced he would vote No on Amendment 4, an abortion rights referendum, preserving the six-week ban.[246] The announcement came one day after he initially criticized the six-week ban for being "too short" and said he would vote to lengthen it.[247] Trump has repeated a false claim that Democrats support abortions after birth and "executing" babies.[248][249]
Border security and immigration
Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the election.[250][251] Polling has shown that most Americans want to reduce immigration[252] and that a substantial minority of white Republicans are concerned about white demographic decline.[253] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering through the border with Mexico occurred.[254] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior officials attributed to increased enforcement between the US and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[255]
Harris has promised to fight for "strong border security" coupled with an earned pathway to citizenship. Harris has highlighted her work in combating transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers while attorney general.[256] In 2023, as vice president, Harris announced pledges of US$950 million from private companies into Central American communities to address the causes of mass migration, such as poverty.[241] Harris states she believes the immigration system is "broken" and needs to be fixed, and she says most Americans believe this.[241] Harris also advocates for stricter asylum rules than president Biden.[257] Harris supports increasing the number of Border Patrol agents and accuses Trump as being unserious on border security.[258] While vice president, Harris supported a bipartisan bill which would have funded additional border agents and closed the border if too crowded, the bill was rejected by Trump. Trump called on House and Senate Republicans to kill the bill arguing it would hurt his and Republican's reelection campaigns and deny them the ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[259][260][261][262][263][264] Harris has criticized Trump for his opposition to the bill on the campaign trail,[256] and has promised to sign the bill into law as president.[265]
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Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[266] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[267] Trump has said he will deport both legal and illegal immigrants.[268][269] The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[266] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military[245] through the 18th century Alien Enemies Act.[225] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by data, and has provided no evidence to back up his claims.[270][271]
Trump's anti-immigrant nativist[272] tone has grown harsher from his previous time as president,[266] and has used fearmongering,[d] racial stereotypes,[272] and more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to illegal immigrants. Trump has repeatedly called some immigrants subhuman, stating they are "not human", "not people", and "animals"[282][283][284] who will "rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill" American citizens,[268] that they are "stone-cold killers", "monsters", "vile animals", "savages", and "predators" that will "walk into your kitchen, they'll cut your throat"[280][281][268][271] and "grab young girls and slice them up right in front of their parents".[268] Other rhetoric includes false statements that foreign leaders are deliberately emptying insane asylums to send "prisoners, murderers, drug dealers, mental patients, terrorists"[285] across America's southern border as migrants, that they are "building an army" of "fighting age" men to attack Americans "from within"[286] and are the "enemy from within" who are ruining the "fabric" of the country.[225] Since fall 2023,[287] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[288][289][287][169] In the 20 rallies since Trump's debate with Harris, Politico found his rhetoric, especially around immigrants, getting darker, citing experts who found it strongly echoed authoritarian and Nazi ideology, including claims that immigrants are genetically predisposed to commit crimes and have "bad genes".[225][290] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[163][282][168][169][170][171]
Climate change
Climate change and energy policy have played a role in the 2024 presidential campaign. In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency.[291] America also dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[292]
Harris is an advocate for environmental justice to address the impact of climate change on lower-income areas and people of color. Under Biden, she supported his climate legislation.[241] Harris helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act,[293] the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history[294] putting the US on track to meet emissions reduction targets by 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030.[295] Harris's campaign has stated that she does not support a ban on fracking.[296][297][200]
Trump has ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change[298][299][300] and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill."[301] Trump says he will increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[302] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed once again leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[302][303] Trump has stated his intention to roll back parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.[304] The implementation of Trump's plans will add around 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2030, having also effects on the international level. If the policies will not change further, it will add 15 billion tons by 2040 and 27 billion by 2050. The exact calculation is difficult, but the researchers state that "Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden's climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C."[305]
Democracy
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[306][307][308] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with Christian nationalist autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[309] According to an October 25 ABC/Ipsos poll, 49% of Americans see Trump as a fascist, described as "a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents." Meanwhile, only 22% saw Harris as a fascist by this definition.[310] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[311] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Biden and the Democratic Party.[122][62] Trump has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.[19]
Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign has been criticized by legal experts, historians, and political scientists for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[312][313][314] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[315] Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[316] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an "obstacle to his agenda" within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[317] Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to have the Justice Department investigate and arrest his domestic political rivals, judges, prosecutors, and witnesses involved in his criminal trials.[318][319][320] A large number of scholars, historians, commentators, former Trump officials and generals have described Trump as a fascist.[f] Trump has said his political opponents are a greater threat to the United States than countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea,[170][321] and has urged deploying the military on American soil to fight "the enemy from within" which he describes as "radical left lunatics" and Democratic politicians such as Adam Schiff.[322] Trump has repeatedly voiced support for outlawing political dissent and criticism he considers misleading or challenges his claims to power.[323][324] Trump has previously tried to prosecute his political rivals and would have fewer checks on his power in a second term.[325]
Project 2025 is a proposed plan by the Heritage Foundation to centralize power into the executive branch for conservative policies to be enacted without input from the judicial branch, legislative branch or local government. The plan received some support from the Republican Party. The document was written in part by former members of the Trump administration, such as Russell Vought and John McEntee,[326] while Trump stated he is unfamiliar with parts of the plan.[327][328][329]
Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political opponents.[163][282][330][169][331][332] Calling the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack a "day of love," Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots."[333][334][335][336] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[337] Harris was tasked by Biden with protecting democracy through voting rights legislation through her work on the For the People Act. Harris has supported efforts to defend election workers and counter Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election.[241] Harris has stated her support to pass the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Rights Voting Rights Advancement Act if elected.[338]
Economic issues
Voters consistently cited the economy as their top issue in the 2024 election.[44] Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a global surge in inflation ensued that raised prices on many goods, though the U.S. inflation rate had declined significantly during 2023 and 2024.[339][340][341] The New York Times reported that both candidates "embraced a vision of a powerful federal government, using its muscle to intervene in markets in pursuit of a stronger and more prosperous economy."[342] The Wall Street Journal reported that economists found Trump's proposed policies created a greater risk of stoking inflation and generating higher budget deficits, relative to the Harris plan.[343] Twenty-three Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter characterizing the Harris economic plan as "vastly superior" to the Trump plan.[344] Trump's designated government efficiency leader Elon Musk said in October that he expected Trump's plan would involve more than $2 trillion in federal spending cuts and would cause "some temporary hardship."[345][346]
Harris is running on a pro-union platform.[347] She has promoted the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, funding for small business, and previously supported an act as senator to provide a $6,000 tax credit for middle and low-income families.[241] Harris has promised to address price gouging, bring down costs, ban hidden fees and late charges from financial institutions, limit "unfair" rent increases and cap prescription drug costs which she has said would "lower costs and save many middle-class families thousands of dollars a year".[348]
The New York Times described Harris' economic policy as embracing "the idea that the federal government must act aggressively to foster competition and correct distortions in private markets." Harris has proposed raising taxes on corporations and high-earners to fund services for the lower and middle classes and reduce the deficit.[342] Harris has stated she supports increasing the top tier capital gains tax rate to 28%, up from 20% and lower than Biden's proposed 39.6%. Harris has stated her support for a Billionaire Minimum Income Tax, increasing the tax on stock buybacks to 4%, and a ten-fold tax reduction for small business ranging from $5,000 to $50,000 in relief.[349] Harris also supports efforts to create a tax on unrealized gains for those with more than a $100 million in net worth if they do not pay a minimum 25% tax rate on their income inclusive of unrealized gains so long as 80% of said wealth is in tradeable assets. The plan would impact a small percentage of America's wealthy, and Axios reported most tech founders and investors would be spared.[350] Harris has also announced support for restoring the corporate tax rate to 28% among several other tax proposals to raise taxes and close loopholes for corporations and the wealthy that would bring in $5 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years.[351] Harris has also proposed tax breaks to companies delivering economic benefit, such as manufacturing technologies to fight global warming and building affordable housing. Harris has proposed a ban on corporate price gouging to "help the food industry become more competitive."[342] Harris has also expressed support for student debt relief,[352] and Harris says she supports raising the minimum wage.[353]
Harris says she will increase home construction to reduce housing costs, arguing that it negatively impacts the economy and hurts working-class families. Harris has proposed directing $40 billion to construction companies to build starter homes. Harris has promised to send $25,000 in down-payment assistance to every first time home buyer.[342] Harris says she will urge Congress to enforce fair housing laws and pass a bill to bar property owners from using services that "coordinate" rents through the passage of the Preventing the Algorithmic Facilitation of Rental Housing Cartels Act, and also call on Congress to pass the Stop Predatory Investing Act by removing tax benefits to Wall Street firms that buy up large numbers of single-family homes.[354][355]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[356] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation,[357] and that these policies coupled with a crackdown in illegal immigration and reduction in inflation will help the middle class.[352] Trump says he will reduce regulation of business through the creation of an efficiency commission led by Elon Musk,[358] along with reducing environmental regulation. By October 2024, Musk was Trump's second-largest individual campaign donor.[359] Trump has said deporting millions of immigrants will bring housing prices down, though most economists argue it could raise prices by removing construction workers who use less real estate.[342][360] Trump and Harris support not taxing tips for at least hospitality and service workers.[353][361]
Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be attempted largely through a universal baseline tariff[362] of 10% to 20% on all imports,[363][364] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[302] Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[363] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[302] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[365] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[366] neomercantilist or autarkist.[362][367] Increasing inflation has become a more common critique of Trump's economic plans.[368][369][370][371] In June 2024, 16 Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.[372][373][374] Moody's[375] and most economists surveyed by the WSJ in July 2024 predict that inflation would be worse under Trump than Biden, a result due in part to tariffs, a crack down on illegal immigration, and larger deficits.[376] Trump incorrectly insists foreign exporters pay tariffs imposed by the U.S. government; American importers pay tariffs on goods upon arrival at U.S. ports, meaning tariffs are taxes that raise prices for imported products Americans buy.[377][378][379] One non-partisan analysis estimated the proposed tariffs would cost $1,700 per year for the average household.[379] The China–United States trade war Trump initiated in 2018 by imposing tariffs on China was widely characterized as a failure for the United States by the end of Trump's presidency.[380] The Committee for a Responsible Budget found that Trump's plans would grow that national debt at roughly twice the rate of Harris' plan,[381] while the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found Trump's plan would only benefit the top 5% of earners.[382]
Trump has suggested that he will abolish the federal income tax and replace it with tariffs. In June 2024, Trump discussed the idea of eliminating the income tax in a private meeting with Republican politicians.[383] In October 2024, Trump suggested that he would scrap the income tax if he wins, pointing out that tariffs were the main sources of revenue in the 19th century.[384]
Education
Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[302][385][386] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[387] At the American Federation of Teachers national convention, Harris attacked recent efforts to ban books in school libraries.[388] She has also previously called for raising teachers' wages.[389]
Healthcare issues
Healthcare and drug policy have been discussed during the 2024 presidential election, such as around the future of the Affordable Care Act.[390]
Harris has supported efforts to strengthen coverage under the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare),[297] including setting caps on seniors' out-of-pocket prescription drug prices at $2,000 and limiting the cost of insulin for those on Medicare to $35 enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.[293] Harris has been a proponent of White House efforts to ban medical debt from credit reports.[352] Harris has stated she no longer supports a single-payer healthcare system.[297] Harris has supported the expanded child tax credit enacted in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 that reduced child poverty by 20%.[293] Harris has expressed support for making child care and elder care more affordable and enacting paid family leave.[352] On August 16, 2024, Harris announced the proposal of a $6,000 child tax credit, expanding her populist economic agenda. Other policies including broadening a cap on prescription drug costs and permanently reinstating the expanded child tax credit.[391]
Trump has continued to advocate repealing the Affordable Care Act during the 2024 election, as he did while in office.[40] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs.[392][393] JD Vance and Mike Johnson have also suggested cuts to Obamacare, including around pre-existing conditions, were part of Trump's plan.[394] On the issue of subsidized care, Harris has stated she will "maintain and grow" the Affordable Care Act.[395][396]
Trump has collaborated with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda and appointed some Kennedy allies to his transition team. The Trump campaign has said that he will form a panel of experts and will charge them with looking into the causes of the upward trend in chronic disease patients.[397] In October 2024, Trump said that he would let Kennedy "go wild" when it comes to policies on food, medicine, and health.[398]
Foreign policy
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Israel–Hamas war and Chinese goals of expansion have been some of the major foreign policy issues of the election. Harris has signaled to generally follow Biden's foreign policy on NATO and Ukraine, supporting both in the aftermath of the Russian invasion.[241][399] A supporter of the two-state solution,[241][400] Harris is seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians than Biden, who described himself as a Zionist.[399] Regarding the Israel–Hamas war, analysts expect Harris to continue Biden's approach.[401] Following Hamas's attack on Israel in 2023, Harris supported Israel's offensive,[402][401] stating that "the threat Hamas poses to the people of Israel must be eliminated".[241] However, she has since criticized Israel's approach and the Gaza humanitarian crisis.[399] In March 2024, Harris opposed Israel's invasion of Rafah,[241] called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza,[401][241] and stated that the situation in Gaza is a "humanitarian catastrophe".[241] Harris has advocated for "de-risking" from China, a policy that encourages reducing Western economic dependence on China.[403] Harris is expected to continue deepening American alliances in Asia and the Pacific with the intention of curbing China's rising power both economically and militarily.[404]
Trump's 2024 campaign promoted an isolationist "America First" foreign policy.[405][406] Trump said that America's allies "treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies", adding "We protect them and then they screw us on trade", and vowed to impose tariffs on trade partners.[407] He promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO, shifting the US's defense spending from Europe towards Asia.[302] Although NATO members are obliged to defend any other member who is attacked, Trump said he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to NATO allies that did not spend enough on defense.[408] Trump vowed that even before he is inaugurated,[409] he will negotiate an end to the Russo-Ukrainian War in one day.[410] He promised to quickly cut the amount of military aid to Ukraine,[411] stop the "endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine", and make Europeans reimburse the U.S. the cost of rebuilding its old stockpiles.[409] Trump previously said he might recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[412] and suggested the 2022 invasion could have been prevented by Ukraine giving up parts of its own country to Russia.[405] Trump is seen as more pro-Israel and less sympathetic to Palestine than Biden or Harris.[413] He voiced strong support for Israel in the Israel–Hamas war, saying that Israel must "finish the problem".[414] Trump said he would "crush" pro-Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years".[415] At times, he has also been critical of Israel's war in Gaza, saying Israel should "get it over with ... get back to peace and stop killing people".[416][417] Trump promised a tougher stance against China,[418] but also questioned whether America should defend ally Taiwan.[419] Trump suggested withdrawing troops from South Korea if it does not pay more to support U.S. troops there.[245]
Israel–Hamas war views
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Polling has indicated that the majority of voters support a ceasefire and American mediation in the Israel-Hamas war.[420] According to a YouGov poll in March 2024, 52% of Americans supported stopping weapons shipments to Israel, coming largely from Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 (62% support) and people who did not vote in 2020 (60%). Republicans opposed halting weapons shipments by 25 points.[421] Republicans generally support arms to Israel, while Democrats are divided on the issue.[422]
Harris supports continued aid to Israel in the war against Hamas, but insists that Israel should agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal and work towards a two-state solution.[423] In the Democratic primaries, the Uncommitted National Movement led a protest campaign against Biden over the war, calling for a ceasefire and arms embargo on Israel. It received over 700,000 votes and 36 delegates.[424] Harris has been seen as more sympathetic to Palestinians during the war, and she and her campaign have interacted with Arab-American and Uncommitted leaders on multiple occasions.[425][426] However, Harris has refused to halt any weapons shipments to Israel or shift policy from Biden, saying Israel has a right to defend itself.[427][428] By October, Uncommitted encouraged its members to vote for Harris.[429]
Trump is seen as more pro-Israel and less sympathetic to Palestine than Biden or Harris.[430] He supports Israel's campaign and has said it "has to have a victory", though has said it needs to "get it over with". Trump has taken a more hardline stance on pro-Palestinian protests on university campuses, pledging to "crush" them, deport non-citizen protestors and "set that movement back 25 or 30 years".[431] Trump promised he would ban Gaza residents from entering the U.S..[432]
LGBTQ rights
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBTQ people, especially transgender people.[433][434]
Harris is a strong supporter of LGBTQ people's rights.[435] She has denounced legislative attacks on transgender rights in states across the country.[436][437]
Trump has promised to roll back policies regarding transgender individuals.[438] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[439] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept only recently manufactured by "the radical left."[440] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.[438] Trump has repeated a false claim that children undergo transgender surgery while at school, without parental knowledge or consent.[441][442]
Republican Party
Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. When he won, Trump became the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[443] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[444][445] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.[446] Trump had announced in March 2022 that his former vice president Mike Pence would not be his running mate.[447] In civil proceedings, Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in 2023, defamation and financial fraud in 2024, becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.[26]
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[448] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents that contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[449][450]
Trump faced opposition in the primaries, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he had raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[451][452][453] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback," DeSantis said. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[454] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[455] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[456]
Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[457][458] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[459] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign.[460][461]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[462]
Trump was injured in an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, when a bullet grazed his ear.[463] This was the first time a president or major party presidential candidate was injured in an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan in 1981.[464] Trump faced another assassination attempt on September 15, 2024, though he was not injured.[465]
On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator JD Vance of Ohio would be his running mate.[466] When he was elected, he became the first marine and first Iraq War veteran to serve as vice president.[467]
On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee. This was the third consecutive election in which he was the Republican nominee.[468]
Republican nominees
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Democratic Party
On April 25, 2023, President Biden officially announced his bid for re-election, confirming that Vice President Harris would remain his running mate.[469][470] Following this announcement, Republicans increased their focus on Harris, intensifying criticism against her.[471] During late 2021, amid Biden's declining approval ratings, speculation arose regarding whether he would seek re-election.[472] Public figures, including former Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and Joe Cunningham, urged Biden not to run.[473][474][475]
Concerns about Biden's age were prominent, given that he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78, which would make him 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of a potential second term.[476] An April 2023 poll indicated that 70 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, believed Biden should not seek a second term, with nearly half citing his age as the reason. Biden's approval rating stood at 41 percent, with 55 percent disapproving, according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.[477] Speculation also arose that Biden might face a primary challenge from the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[478][479] However, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed Biden's chances of securing the party's nomination had increased.[480]
Author Marianne Williamson was the first to challenge Biden by announcing her candidacy in February 2023.[481] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also entered the race but later shifted his campaign to an independent run on October 9, 2023.[482] Representative Dean Phillips joined the race on October 26, 2023;[483] he withdrew in March 2024 and endorsed Biden.[484][485] Williamson initially withdrew from the race in February 2024 but later resumed her campaign, only to end it again on June 11, 2024.[486][487][488]
Jason Palmer, who surprised many by winning the American Samoa caucuses, became the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980. However, he suspended his campaign on May 15, 2024.[489] On March 12, 2024, Biden secured a majority of delegates, becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.[490]
Despite securing the nomination, Biden faced significant opposition from "uncommitted" voters and the Uncommitted National Movement, who collectively garnered more votes than several major contenders in the 2020 Democratic primaries and won 36 delegates.[491] Following a widely panned debate performance against Trump on June 27, 2024, Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, endorsing Harris as his successor.[492] Harris quickly announced her campaign and secured enough delegate endorsements by July 22, becoming the presumptive nominee.[493]
Biden's withdrawal made him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to seek re-election, and the first to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.[494] Harris is the first nominee who did not participate in the primaries since Vice President Hubert Humphrey, also in 1968.[495]
Following Biden's withdrawal, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, and Andy Beshear emerged as lead candidates in the veepstakes.[496] Shapiro received pushback from pro-Palestine activists for comments on college protesters[497] and for claiming to volunteer for the IDF,[498] while Kelly was criticized by labor groups.[499]
The Democratic Party conducted a virtual roll call vote on August 2, where Harris secured the majority of delegate votes and became the official nominee on August 5.[500] She selected Walz as her running mate the following day.[501] Harris would have made history as the first female and first Asian American president of the United States.[502] Walz would have been the first vice president to have served in the war on terror.[503]
Democratic nominees
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Third-party and independent candidates
A number of independent candidates have announced presidential runs, most notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West.
Several third parties, including the Libertarian Party, the Green Party, the Party for Socialism and Liberation, the Constitution Party, and the American Solidarity Party have also announced presidential nominees.[504]
Kennedy dropped out of the race in August 2024, though he remained on the ballot in many states. The No Labels organization abandoned its efforts to run a centrist candidate in April 2024.[505]
With majority ballot access
Libertarian Party
Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[506] Oliver achieved ballot access in 47 states, and was eligible to receive write-in votes in the District of Columbia, Illinois, New York, and Tennessee.[507][508]
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Green Party
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Political party affiliations
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Stein was also the party's candidate in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. On August 16, Stein selected academic Butch Ware as her running mate.[509] Stein achieved ballot access in 38 states, and was eligible to receive write-in votes in seven states. She was not eligible to receive write-in votes in the remaining states or the District of Columbia.[507][510][508]
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With partial ballot access
These third-party candidates had ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes needed to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.
- American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member[511]
- Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, activist and nominee for president in 2020[512]
- Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate[513]
- Independent American Party: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant[514]
- Natural Law Party: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer; Kennedy was the party's nominee in addition to his run as an independent before he withdrew from the race ahead of the election, but was not removed from ballots[515]
- Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman[516]
- Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist[517][518]
- Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020[519]
- Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist[520]
- Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive[521]
Independent candidates
The following notable individuals ran independently for president.
- Cornel West, academic, anti-war activist and public intellectual, previously a People's Party and Green Party primaries candidate,[522][523] launched an independent campaign.[524][525]
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist, 2024 Democratic presidential candidate and 2024 independent presidential candidate (endorsed Trump)[526]
Timeline
Opinion polling and forecasts
Opinion polling aggregation
Harris and Trump
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| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Others/ Undecided [j] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[527] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.2% | 4.4% | Harris +1.2% |
| 538[528] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.0% | 46.8% | 5.2% | Harris +1.2% |
| Cook Political Report[529] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.8% | 3.5% | Harris +0.9% |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[530] | through November 5, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.4% | 48.4% | 3.2% | Tie |
| Silver Bulletin[531] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.6% | 3.8% | Harris +1.0% |
| Real Clear Politics[532] | through November 5, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 48.7% | 48.6% | 2.7% | Harris +0.1% |
| Average | 48.5% | 47.7% | 3.8% | Harris +0.8% | ||
Harris vs. Trump vs. Kennedy Jr. vs. Stein vs. Oliver vs. West
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[k] Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Cornel West Independent |
Others/ Undecided [j] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[533] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.8% | 47.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | Harris +0.7% |
| 270toWin[534] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.5% | 46.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% | Harris +0.6% |
| Average | 47.7% | 47.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | Harris +0.7% | ||
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "very likely" (used by some predictors): massive advantage that is stronger than "likely"
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and YouGov are omitted for brevity.[l]
| State | EVs | PVI [537] |
2020 result |
2020 margin [538] |
IE Nov 3[539] |
Cook Nov 4[540] |
CNalysis Nov 4[541] |
Sabato Nov 4[542] |
CNN Oct 8[543] |
DDHQ Nov 5[544] |
538 Nov 5[535] |
Economist Nov 5[536] |
YouGov Nov 1[545] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 10 | D+4 | 55.4% D | 13.50% | Solid D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+3 | 54.3% D | 10.79% | Solid D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3 | 54.1% D | 10.11% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Maine[m] | 2 | D+2 | 53.1% D | 9.07% | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+1 | 52.7% D | 7.35% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+1 | 52.4% D | 7.11% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| NE–02[m] | 1 | EVEN | 52.0% D[n] | 6.50% | Lean D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup |
| Michigan | 15 | R+1 | 50.6% D | 2.78% | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Nevada | 6 | R+1 | 50.1% D | 2.39% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | R+2 | 50.0% D | 1.16% | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Wisconsin | 10 | R+2 | 49.5% D | 0.63% | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona | 11 | R+2 | 49.4% D | 0.31% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| Georgia | 16 | R+3 | 49.5% D | 0.24% | Tossup | Tossup | Likely D | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina | 16 | R+3 | 49.9% R | 1.35% | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Florida | 30 | R+3 | 51.2% R | 3.36% | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Texas | 40 | R+5 | 52.1% R | 5.58% | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| ME–02[m] | 1 | R+6 | 52.3% R | 7.44% | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup |
| Ohio | 17 | R+6 | 53.3% R | 8.03% | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Iowa | 6 | R+6 | 53.1% R | 8.20% | Tilt R | Likely R | Tilt R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Alaska | 3 | R+8 | 52.8% R | 10.06% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| NE–01[m] | 1 | R+9 | 54.3% R[o] | 11.00% | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Kansas | 6 | R+10 | 56.14% R | 14.63% | Solid R | Solid R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Overall | D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 308 R – 230 0 tossups |
D – 276 R – 262 0 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups |
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups |
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups |
D – 240 R – 218 80 tossups | ||||
Debates
In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[546] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.[547] The Harris camp suggested that another debate could be held in October after the September 10 debate with Trump.[548] On September 12, Trump announced that there would be no third presidential debate.[549]
June 27 presidential debate: Biden vs. Trump
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27 in Atlanta, with 51 million viewers watching.[550] Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[551][552][553]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[554] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[555] In response, Biden initially stated that he would not be dropping out, and prominent Democratic politicians, including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[556][557][558] The debate performance led to Biden ultimately withdrawing his bid for re-election on July 21.[559]
September 10 presidential debate: Harris vs. Trump
The second presidential debate was held on Tuesday, September 10 by ABC News[560] with 67.1 million viewers watching.[561] Trump had proposed a debate on Fox News instead of the ABC debate,[562] but later accepted the debate on ABC.[563] The debate was held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and lasted for about 100 minutes.[564] ABC's debate topics included abortion, the economy, foreign policy, and immigration.[565] Most news organizations declared Harris the winner of the debate,[p] and polling showed voters thought Harris won the debate by what The Washington Post described as a "historically large" margin.[575] During the debate, Trump made numerous false assertions and extreme statements, including false claims about immigrants eating pets and Democrats supporting infanticide.[576] CNN found that Trump made over 30 false claims during the debate, but Harris only made one.[577] Republicans attributed Trump's low debate performance to their perception of biased debate moderation by ABC News, because the moderators fact-checked him more than four times but did not fact-check Harris.[578][579]
October 1 vice presidential debate: Vance vs. Walz
Vice presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz participated in a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1 at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City.[580][581] Topics discussed during the debate included immigration, abortion, and the economy.[582][583] Fact checking was primarily done online only,[584] with Vance making more false and misleading claims than Walz.[585]
Forty-three million viewers watched the debate.[586] Many debate watchers viewed the debate as "positive" and "civil". According to polling, both candidates polled about even among viewers who were asked who won the debate,[587] while Vance was considered the winner by a majority of columnists.[q]
Minor debates and forums
Various debates and forums have been held, sponsored by the Free & Equal Elections Foundation.[595]
Aftermath
Election night
NewsNation was the first TV network to call the race for Trump; the network relied on data from Decision Desk HQ, and the projection was made at 1:22 a.m. EST on November 6th.[596] Fox News projected Trump as the winner at 1:47 a.m. before CNN, the three major broadcast networks, and the Associated Press began declaring towards his favor at 2:25 a.m.[597] In a convention center in West Palm Beach, Florida, he was greeted with cheers by supporters, chanting, "USA! USA! USA!" when Fox News declared him the winner. Trump claimed victory in a speech to his supporters, where he was joined on stage by his family and his running mate, JD Vance, saying; "America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate." Harris did not speak to her supporters, who had gathered at Howard University, her alma mater. Her campaign co-chair, Cedric Richmond, briefly addressed the crowd, saying Harris would speak publicly on Wednesday.[598] A few hours later, other media outlets would also project Trump as the 47th president of the United States, with Associated Press describing it as an "extraordinary comeback for a former president".[599] On November 6, 2024, a day after the election night, Harris delivered her concession speech at Howard University.[600][601]
International reactions
Other reactions
Wall Street's main indexes reported record highs on the day after election night, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.57%, the S&P 500 up 2.53%, and Nasdaq up 2.95%.[602]
Former president George W. Bush, who had refused to endorse either candidate, offered his congratulations to Trump and said that what he defined as a "...strong turnout" in the election was a "sign of the health of our republic and the strength of our democratic institutions."[603]
See also
- 2024 United States elections
- Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
- Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
- ^ a b This tally only reflects projections made unanimously by ABC,[2] Associated Press,[1] CBS,[3] CNN,[4] and NBC.[5]
- ^ Dark blue for states where ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, and NBC have all projected a win; light blue for states where only a majority of these sources have projected a win.
- ^ Dark red for states where ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, and NBC have all projected a win; light red for states where only a majority of these sources have projected a win.
- ^ a b Attributed to multiple references:[273][274][275][276][277][278][279][272][280][281]
- ^ a b Attributed to multiple references:[163][164][167][168][169][170][171][172]
- ^ a b c Attributed to multiple references:[22][218][219][220][221][222][223][224][225][24][226][227][228][229]
- ^ Attributed to multiple references:[74][75][76][77][78][79]
- ^ New York Penal Law defines rape as vaginal penetration by the penis, which Carroll stated perhaps entered only "halfway".[125][126][127][128]
- ^ A state law passed in late January 2024 expanded the state's legal definition of rape to include nonconsensual vaginal, anal, and oral contact, effective non-retroactively beginning in September 2024.[129]
- ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Kennedy dropped out of the race in August 2024, though he remains on the ballot in most states.
- ^ The FiveThirtyEight forecast[535] and The Economist[536] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and The Economist are omitted.
- ^ a b c d Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
- ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 1st congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
- ^ Most news organizations declared Harris the winner of the presidential debate.[566][567][568][569][570][571][572][573][574]
- ^ Vance was declared the winner of the debate by columnists from The New York Times,[588] The Wall Street Journal,[589] the Los Angeles Times,[590] USA Today,[591] the Financial Times,[592] and Politico[593] while Walz was declared the winner by a columnist from MSNBC.[594]
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External links
- "Misinformation Dashboard: Election 2024. A tool tracking the topics and tactics of 2024 election misinformation". News Literacy Project. 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
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